Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 12.222130 14.281232 16.526366 19.149005 22.121070 25.376943 29.205780
2024-12-29 9.190154 12.041080 15.453266 19.804117 25.166862 31.520835 39.575177
2025-01-05 7.088315 10.264058 14.381951 20.031920 27.489549 36.894129 49.532131
2025-01-12 5.586729 8.849091 13.389610 20.026627 29.309106 41.635528 59.006131
2025-01-19 4.522763 7.774801 12.598622 20.054642 31.018173 46.231096 68.541015
2025-01-26 4.072379 7.499881 12.860509 21.533136 34.809898 53.886320 82.749806
2025-02-02 3.599711 7.083050 12.812185 22.485447 37.855237 60.652684 96.133259
2025-02-09 3.194040 6.692828 12.726158 23.324414 40.747043 67.344386 109.800072
2025-02-16 2.717804 6.078738 12.162561 23.286310 42.205787 71.922936 120.551240
2025-02-23 2.246593 5.376311 11.330549 22.667256 42.615403 74.843219 128.879289
2025-03-02 1.828140 4.689622 10.415579 21.768709 42.428568 76.739355 135.644000
2025-03-09 1.583060 4.319048 10.041879 21.794077 43.804258 81.222384 146.752687
2025-03-16 1.325828 3.874896 9.473970 21.420302 44.498789 84.725815 156.678647
2025-03-23 1.221919 3.775909 9.609964 22.440314 47.836403 92.971469 175.030652
2025-03-30 1.080112 3.548596 9.432880 22.802224 49.959873 99.228285 190.352816
2025-04-06 0.936115 3.279615 9.118438 22.834995 51.440745 104.422631 204.114728
2025-04-13 0.813768 3.039005 8.829266 22.880159 52.934332 109.711163 218.302083
2025-04-20 0.792074 3.091191 9.253807 24.540002 57.796668 121.458266 244.543888
2025-04-27 0.740729 3.039420 9.410588 25.606926 61.515570 131.264613 267.739978
2025-05-04 0.687733 2.969176 9.508863 26.545346 65.029260 140.862429 290.989511
2025-05-11 0.600786 2.760237 9.207460 26.503021 66.450772 146.518081 307.228061
2025-05-18 0.503002 2.481431 8.666331 25.811205 66.398942 149.285718 318.186466
2025-05-25 0.410854 2.190078 8.033854 24.806418 65.554459 150.409469 326.052444